Bitcoin ended the 5/18 session with a bearish breakout from the previous week’s consolidation range, which has support in the 232-234 area. BTCUSD fell to 228 and is consolidating so far during the 5/19 session under the 234 handle.
In the 1H chart, we can see that the market is bearish with price holding under the 200-, and 100-hour SMA. Also, the RSI tagged below 30 to show revival of bearish momentum. Now, the bearish breakout stalled, but if price can hold under 236 the bearish outlook should remain in play, especially if the 1H RSI holds under 60. Above 236 however, bitcoin will be pressured towards 239-240. Then a break above 240 would signal a reversal of the short-term downtrend.
Looking at the 4H chart, we can see that the market has been bullish since late April, but is in a mini bearish trend since finding resistance around 249-250. A break above 240 would clear this falling channel and thus pt pressure towards the 249-250 area. Above 240, price would also be above the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. We can see a price bottom building in the 4H chart, so this bullish scenario can open up a medium-term bullish mode with the 300-315 highs in sight.
Otherwise, if the falling channel resistance remains intact, there would be downside risk back towards the 214 April low. When we look at the daily chart, we can see that indeed, we should be ready for the bearish outlook.
Bitcoin is still trading under the 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs and the daily RSI is still holding under 60. This means bears are still in charge of this market in the medium-term. Therefore, if price fails to climb back above 236, there is downside risk at least to the 214 April-low.
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