AUD/NZD – Double Bottom vs. Key Trendline

AUD/NZD - Double Bottom vs. Key Trendline

This week, the Aussie has been resilient against the Kiwi .After making a low on the year as well as a historic low at the beginning of the April  at 1.0020, AUD/NZD came close to that low this week, but we can see in the 4H chart. Today, price broke above the previous high on the year and consolidation resistance at 1.0222. This essentially completed a double bottom.

AUD/NZD 4H Chart 4/23
(click to enlarge)

Price is crossing above the 200-period SMA and the RSI is pushing above 70. These are signs that the market is initiating a bullish outlook. Now, if there is a pullback, we should expect support around 1.0150. If price falls below 1.0140, AUD/NZD would fall below the 100-, and 50-period SMAs as wel as the middle of the broken range. IF the RSI also falls below 40, these would be signs of a failed bullish breakout, which would translate into a strong bearish signal, especially since the prevailing trend is bearish.

AUD/NZD Daily Chart 4/23
audnzd daily chart 4/23
(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows that the current double bottom is going to be challenged by a falling trendline. As price approaches 1.03, it will be tested by the trendline and the 50-day SMA. The prevailing trend is still bearish, so expect selling here. Then, as we discussed, see what happens around 1.0140-50 area. IF this area holds as support, then we might get another attempt to break these resistance factors.

If price breaks above 1.03 and the daily RSI pushes above 60, we can look for further consolidation, or bullish correction. However, we should not assess the AUD/NZD as bullish until it shows respect to the price bottom and starts holding above 1.02 after subsequent, strong bearish attempts.

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at