AUDJPY Forex Forecast – Ascending Channel Setup

AUDJPY Forex Forecast - Ascending Channel SetupAUDJPY has started to trend higher on its 1-hour time frame, moving inside a rising channel on the short-term chart. Price is currently testing the channel support and might be due for a bounce towards the resistance at the 78.00 major psychological level.
The 100 SMA just crossed below the 200 SMA, signaling that the path of least resistance might be to the downside. This means that AUDJPY can still break below the channel support around the 76.00 area and start a reversal.
Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions, which might also mean that sellers are ready to take control. If so, a break below the channel support could spur a drop to the next floor around 74.50.
Event risks for this setup this week include the Australian jobs release and Chinese data. The Australian economy is expected to have added 10.1K jobs in June, lower than the previous month’s 17.9K increase, while the unemployment rate is expected to climb from 5.7% to 5.8%.
Later in the week, China will print its Q2 GDP, June industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales reports. The economy is expected to have grown by 6.6% in the latest quarter, slower than the previous 6.7% figure. Industrial production could slip from 6.0% to 5.9% year-over-year growth while fixed asset investment and retail sales are also expected to slow.
There are no major reports lined up from the Japanese economy but risk sentiment and intervention threats from the BOJ and Japanese government officials could have a strong say in yen price action for the rest of the week.

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.