AUDJPY Forex Forecast – Aiming for Range Support

AUDJPY Forex Forecast - Aiming for Range Support

AUDJPY Forex Forecast - Aiming for Range SupportAUDJPY has been moving sideways on the 1-hour time frame, finding support around the 91.00 major psychological level and resistance just above 92.00. The pair seems to be on its way to test the bottom of the range for another potential bounce.

However, the 100 SMA just crossed below the 200 SMA, suggesting that further decliens might be possible. If so, price could break below support at 91.00 and fall by an additional 100 pips, which is roughly the same height as the range.

Stochastic is moving up though, which means that there could be enough buying pressure left for a move back to the top of the range. RSI is on the way down but is on middle ground, barely offering directional clues at the moment.

AUDUSD Fundamental Factors

Earlier today, Australia reported a climb in its NAB business confidence from 0 to 4 for the second quarter of the year, reflecting an increase in optimism. Meanwhile, Japan indicated a wider trade deficit of 0.25 trillion JPY from its previous 0.18 trillion JPY shortfall.

The path of least resistance in terms of fundamentals is still to the downside since gold prices have been tumbling recently, which is not good for the positively-correlated Australian dollar. At the same time, equities have also been on the decline due mostly to weak US earnings reports and this is weighing on risk appetite and higher-yielding currencies like the Aussie.

There are no major reports lined up from both Japan and Australia for the rest of the day, leaving risk sentiment in the driver’s seat of price action. Further declines in gold and other commodities for the rest of the day could have an impact on market sentiment and Aussie trading. More US companies are set to release their earnings reports in the New York trading session and this could have a spillover effect to market risk sentiment as well.

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.