Resistance at the top of the USDJPY range on the 4-hour time frame kept gains in check, pushing the pair back to the middle of the range. Price could be headed back to the bottom of the range around the 118.50 minor psychological level.
Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions but hasn’t crossed higher yet, indicating that there could be enough selling pressure left to push the pair to the bottom of the range. For now, the long-term EMA is holding as support around the middle of the range. If this keeps losses at bay, USDJPY might bounce back to the top of the range at 120.50 once more.
Weaker than expected data from the US is weighing on the pair recently, as the ADP non-farm employment change figure indicated a 169K gain in hiring versus expectations of a 199K increase. The previous month’s figure was downgraded to show a smaller gain in hiring, suggesting that the upcoming US NFP release might also be in for dismal results.
USDJPY Forex Outlook
If so, the US dollar could be in for more losses and possibly lead USDJPY to break below range support. In that case, the pair could chalk up an additional 200 pips in losses, as this is the same size as the rectangle chart pattern. Similarly, a strong reading could trigger an upside break from the resistance and around 200 pips in gains for USDJPY.
There have been no major reports out of Japan recently since traders have been off on a holiday. Liquidity has been low during most Asian trading sessions this week, keeping USDJPY inside its range. Prior to this, Japan printed a few improvements in its inflation and spending reports, prompting traders to think that the BOJ won’t need to increase its stimulus efforts. The path of least resistance is to the downside, especially if the US NFP disappoints.
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