USDJPY Forex Forecast – Rising Channel Pullback

USDJPY Forex Forecast - Rising Channel PullbackUSDJPY has been trending higher recently, moving inside a rising channel pattern on the 1-hour time frame. Price just came off a test of resistance and might be ready for a pullback to the channel support, which is near the moving averages.
The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level lines up with the bottom of the channel around the 110.20 level and the dynamic support at the moving averages, making it the line in the sand for any short-term correction.
Stochastic is already on the move up, indicating that buyers are starting to regain control. If so, the 23.6% Fib might be enough to keep losses in check and push the pair back up to the recent highs at 111.35 and beyond. RSI is also turning higher to indicate a return in bullish momentum.
News that the Japanese government is planning on delaying the next sales tax hike from April 2017 to October 2019 is currently weighing on the Japanese currency, as this would delay a return to a primary surplus and even risk a possible credit rating downgrade. Market watchers are also speculating that Abe’s decision to delay an increase in consumption tax might be a sign of political weakness in the ruling party.
As for the US dollar, traders are set to return from their Memorial Day holiday and might influence USDJPY trends. US CB consumer confidence data and the Chicago PMI are up for release today, with the former expected to rise from 94.2 to 96.1 and the latter estimated to climb from 50.4 to 50.8.
Later on in the week, the US NFP report could have a strong impact on USDJPY price action, as traders are on the lookout for more signs that the Fed can push through with a June rate hike. Last week, Fed Chairperson Yellen confirmed that a rate hike could be appropriate in the coming months but noted that wage and productivity growth are still weak.

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.