USD/JPY Currency Forecast

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Currency forecast, June 19th
Currency forecast, June 19th

Well, the USDJPY stops were more in the market then I have seen previously, which drove the USDJPY down below 99,00. I would see that to take out all the stops before the Nonfarm-Payrolls number on Friday will come out. I expect now a positive number (even a number as expected would be very positive to the market after the big storms in the USA) and should give the USDJPY a boost. That is why my model bought 3 lots of USDJPY. Also the model got positioned in EURUSD, EURCHF and USDCHF.

Regarding the ECB event, it can only surprise to the downside (a rate cut). The ECB would never say that they change the direction and a rate hike would be possible in the near future. I would say chances are 50/50 that we see a rate cut this time or at the next ECB meeting. Especially because inflation seems to be under control, which gives the ECB more room to act.
I still would not touch the EURJPY and I also would not touch the GBP for now and wait until the BOE event. To be positioned in the GBP for now would be the same like flipping a coin.

The market overall (without GBP) should be more and more quiet the closer we get to the Friday NFP numbers. I think the position looks pretty ready to go into the numbers. Only the ECB event could make the market volatile, but if it does, it would only weaken the EUR vs. the USD and would have more or less no impact on the EURCHF.

Current trades, positions and levels:

EURUSD Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Sell (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
1.3110-1.3120 1.2950-1.2990 1.3200 1 Short @ 1,3110

USDJPY Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Buy (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
99.90 102.00-102.50 99.00 3 Long@ 99,15 B @ 99,15 -90 Pips -90 Pips

EURCHF Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Buy (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
1.2300-1.2350 1.2500 1.2250 1 long 1,2330 B @ 1,2330

USDCHF Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Buy (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
0.9425-0.9450 0.9650-0.9700 0.9350 1 long 0,9440 B @ 0,9440