USD/CHF has been retreating since the March high of 1.0127. Let’s follow up on this pair as it threatens to reverse the bearish mode since March.
The daily chart shows a market that has turned bullish after the downwards spike in January. If you remember, that spike was due to the SNB removing its peg to the euro. That caused an initial surge in the CHF. However, when comparing the SNB with the FOMC, we saw that the SNB was dovish while the FOMC has turned neutral and is looking to raise rates.
The USD/CHF thus rebounded. The slide since March can be attributed to the slowdown in Q1 data in the US and the subsequent delay in FOMC’s rate hike plan. Now, when we look at the USD/CHF, we can see price in a falling channel sine March, but also price threatening this channel’s resistance this week.
If USD/CHF clears 0.95, it will likely open up the 1.0127-1.0240 highs on the year. A break below 0.9385 might neutralize the bullish attempt, and a break below 0.93 might keep the USD/CHF in its bearish mode since March.
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