NZDUSD could be in for more losses as price formed a head and shoulders pattern on its daily time frame. Price is also testing the neckline around the .7100 major psychological mark and a breakdown could send it lower by 450 pips or the same height as the chart formation.
However, the 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that there’s still a chance for the long-term uptrend to resume. Stochastic is also dipping into the oversold region, which reflects exhaustion among sellers and a potential return in buying pressure.
Earlier this week, New Zealand’s GDT auction yielded a 2.4% slump in dairy prices, erasing the gains chalked up in earlier weeks. The NZIER business confidence index has also taken a hit and fallen from 18 to 5 to reflect much lower optimism among firms.
On the other hand, the dollar has gained strong support from better than expected leading indicators for the NFP. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs both beat expectations and showed gains in the employment component while the ADP report and Challenger job cuts also reflected positive hiring momentum.
The main catalyst for today is the NFP release, which is expected to show a gain of 88K versus the earlier 156K figure. A higher than expected read could boost December hike expectations, especially since the latest batch of Fed officials to give speeches sounded more upbeat. On the other hand, a huge miss could lead to losses for the dollar if traders think it’s bad enough to keep the US central bank on hold for the rest of the year.