NZD/USD barely edged out a new high on the year last week, at 0.8793. It was previously 0.8779 which was the May-high. Since then, the kiwi-usd pair has pulled back, but is starting this week bouncing off June’s rising trendline. So far during the 6/30 European-US session, traders are keeping June’s bullish trend intact.
(nzdusd 4h chart, 6/30)
The 4H RSI also reflects bullish momentum as it popped up above 70, and even above 80 in June, and has held it above 40 since. If the RSI falls below 40 in the 4H chart, and price falls below June’s TL, then we are likely entering a period of consolidation. In this scenario, the lows around 0.8650 will be the first key area of support.
When you look at the 1H chart, you see that the NZD/USD came off a head and shoulders pattern last week. Since then, we had a brief bearish correction, which did not violate June’s bullish outlook as we saw in the 4H chart. If price can push back above the 50-hour SMA, and the near-term pivot at 0.8765, as well as the falling line from last week, then NZD/USD is likely in bullish continuation.
(NZD/USD 1H chart, 6/30)
If price fails to clear last week’s falling line, and the 1H RSI is held bellow 60, then we are likely to see some neutral to bearish price action this week ahead of Thursday’s US NFP.
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