Litecoin has been consolidating. This week, it held under 1.47 until a bullish breakout during the 5/21 session. Looking at price action if there is a pullback, a bullish market should not allow litecoin to fall back below 1.46. If it does, it is back to the neutral mode it has been in for the past couple of weeks.
If price can hold above 1.46, then the pressure will be mounting on the 1.50 handle, which is a repeat resistance in a larger consolidation see in the 4H chart. The larger range is between 1.30 and 1.50, and the structure turned out to be an ascending triangle. The ascending triangle itself has a slight bullish bias, and now, with price above the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs, the pressure is again building up on 1.50.
With so many retreats from 1.50, we can assume that there are a lot of short-term stops just above 1.50. This means a break above 1.50 should be sharp. The width between 1.30 and 1.50 is 0.20, and a breakout projection using this width targets the 1.70 handle.
Now, let’s say price fails to break above 1.50 and falls back below 1.46. This might bring the pressure back to 1.30. It would be even more so if there is a break above 1.50 and instead of a sharp breakout, ltcusd gets faded immediately back below 1.46.
While there is a bullish bias in the near-term, the medium-term outlook is bearish-neutral.
The daily chart shows that price is still mostly below the 200-, 100- and 50-day SMAs, while the RSI is holding under 60 for the most part after pushing below 30. With the prevailing downtrend still intact, let’s limit the bullish scenario above 1.50 to 1.60-1.62 instead of 1.70. This area is where a spike down to 1.00 pivoted from. To the downside however, we have more room to fall, towards at least the 1.00 parity level, which is he low on the year.
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