Key Fundamental Releases this Week (10/6 – 10/10)

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Key Fundamental Releases this Week (10/6 - 10/10)

Last week, the key fundamental factors were the ECB’s monetary policy decision and the US Non-Farm Payroll report. The ECB planned to expand its purchase of Asset Backed Securities (ABS) instead of going all out QE. The US NFP surprised to the upside and gave the USD another boost. Let’s take a look at what this week has in store for us.

Monday (Oct. 6)

Canada Ivey PMI (Sept.)
Forecast: 53.4
Previous 50.9

Tuesday (Oct. 7)

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
The BoJ has maintained its implementation of stimulus measures and this has kept the JPY pressured. Any indication that the bank will be taking its feet off the pedal can give the JPY some reprieve. However, economic data will force the BoJ to cut its economic growth projection, so we can expect the BoJ to maintain its current stance on monetary policy.

Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement
While the RBA wants to cool off the property investment market, it does not want to rate interest rates and upset the rest of the economy. Most likely the bank will have to sit on its hands for a while in terms of interest rates.

UK Manufacturing Production m/m (August)
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: 0.3%

JOLTS Jobs Openings (August)
Forecast: 4.71M
Previous: 4.67M
job openings sept 2014

(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)
Not only are jobless claims falling, job openings are growing. The FOMC will soon have to consider raising rates before mid-2015, or at least address this possibility because we have been getting strong labor market data along with decent readings from other parts of the economy, except for wage growth, which can be limited as more people join the labor market as indicated in this past Friday’s NFP report.

Wednesday (Oct. 8)

FOMC Meeting Minutes
There’s probably not going to be much a surprise here. We know there were 2 dissenters, Plosser and Fisher, who are hawkish and think the fed should raise rates earlier. They have always had this position, but perhaps were a bit more adamant. At least that is what the market has already been pricing in by boosting the USD. It would take a lot to ride another wave off these minutes, unless they do reveal a strong push from the 2 hawks to raise rates NOW.

Thursday (Oct.9)

AUS Employment Change (September)
Forecast: -29.6K
Previous: 121K
aus employment change

(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)
Last month’s surprise employment change was mainly due to part-time jobs. For September, the reading is expected to fall at the fastest pace since March 2013. The unemployment rate is expected to edge back up.
AUS Unemployment Rate (September)
Forecast: 6.2%
Previous: 6.1%

Bank of England Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
The BOE has walked back its rate hike schedule. After saying it was possible for a rate hike at the end of 2014, it is now projected to be in Q1 2015, and continues to push backwards. Just like in Australia, there is a bubbling property investment market in the UK, and it will be tricky to try to tighten up the investor market while encouraging first time home-buyers. Also, the market will be keen on the BoE’s inflation projection. If it is looking at lower price pressures, we can expect further push back to the interest rate hike and thus more pressure on the GBP.

US Jobless Claims (weekly)
Forecast: 291K
Previous: 287K

Friday (Oct. 10)

CAN Employment Change (September)
Previous: -11K
Unemployment Rate (September)
Previous 7.0%

We also have various Fed presidents speaking throughout the week with Janet Yellen also addressing different methodology that the FOMC might use is assessing the labor market.

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.
  • luck

    So that the GBP will be going to decrease more, it can be down nearly 1.5685.ea