Key Fundamental Factors this Week (9/15-9/19)

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Key Fundamental Factors this Week (9/15-9/19)

This is a relatively quiet week in terms of fundamental data points. But we do have the a Scottish Independence Vote, FOMC meeting as the main factors like to create volatility.

Monday (9/15)

US Industrial Production m/m (August)
Forecast: 0.4%
July: 0.4%

Tuesday (9/16)

BoJ Governor Hauhiko Kuroda will be holding a press conference in Osaka. Economic data has been weak. The BoJ is expected to stay course with loose monetary policy.

UK CPI y/y (August)
Forecast: 1.5%
July: 1.6%
UK CPI september 2014

(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)

German Zew Economic Sentiment(September)
Forecast: 5.2%
July: 8.6%
German ZEW Economic Sentiment

(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)

US PPI m/m (August)
Forecast: 0.1%
July: 0.1%

Wednesday (9/17)

UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y (July)
Forecast: 0.5%
July: -0.2%
uk avg earnings

(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)

UK Claimant Count Change (August)
Forecast: -29.7K
July: -33.6K
uk claimant count change

(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)

BoE Meeting Minutes 

UK jobs data and meeting minutes to the most recent BoE monetary policy decision can cause some volatility for the GBP, which  has been extremely bearish in the last couple of months.

US CPI m/m (August)
Forecast: 0.1%
July: 0.1%

US Core CPI m/m  (August)
Forecast: 0.2%
July: 0.1%

FOMC Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference – The market expects the Fed to hold the federal funds rate below 0.25%. The bank is also expected to taper its QE program which is currently at $15B. Jobs data in Q3 have not been lackluster. An uptick in inflation can help pull the FOMC’s timeline for a rate hike earlier than mid-2015. Yellen might not give any strong signals as to when the bank will raise rates, but if she does not say that the fed needs “considerable” time in its near-zero interest rate campaign, the USD might get another boost.

Thursday (9/18)

Scottish Independence Vote – The GBP continues to be under pressure, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the Scottish referendum for independence. This can be a historical moment, and there can be a lot of volatility this week for the British Pound.

NZ GDP q/q (Q2)
Forecast: 0.6%
Q1: 1.0%

Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Assessment – In this quarterly report, the SNB will provide its economic outlook.

UK Retail Sales m/m (August)
Forecast: 0.4%
July: 0.1%

US Building Permits m/m (August), annualized
Forecast: 1.04M
July: 1.06M

US Jobless Claims
Forecast: 312K
Last week: 315K
jobless claims

(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory)

Jobless claims data has been trending down, which was good news. However, since late July, jobless claims data have been unimpressive, although a reading slightly above 300K is not terrible. Still, if jobless claims data can return below 300K, the FOMC will be more likely to move its rate hike time-line closer.

Janet Yellen will speak in Washington DC and could cause some volatility in the markets.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (September)
Forecast: 22.8
August: 28.0

Friday (9/19)

CAN CPI m/m (August)
Forecast: -0.1%
July: -0.2%

CAN Core CPI m/m (August)
Forecast: 0.2%
July: -0.1%

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.