Key Fundamental Factors this Week (12/29-1/2)

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Key Fundamental Factors this Week (12/29-1/2)

Last week, we saw some USD-strength after GDP data for Q3 was revised up. Other than that, it was a relatively light week in terms of fundamental releases. It will be another light week to wrap up the year. Let’s see what’s in store for use in the upcoming, shortened  week.

Tuesday 12/30

CB Consumer Confidence (December)
Forecast: 94.6
Previous: 88.7
cb consumer confidence dec 2014
(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)

Consumer confidence in the US has been rising according to the Conference Board. It returning towards levels before the financial crisis. The Umich survey already shows sentiments back at pre-crisis level. These two indicators underpin a sustainable recovery into 2015 and thus strong possibility of a rate hike between the end of Q1 and mid-2015.

Wednesday 12/31

Jobless Claims
Forecast: 287K
Previous Week: 280K
Jobless claims have been declining and has been below 300K for the most part since July. This is not going to be as significant anymore, as the FOMC is looking for the strong recovery the jobs market to translate into wage growth before pulling the trigger on a rate hike campaign.

Thursday: HAPPY New Year!

Friday 1/2/2015

UK Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 53.7
Previous: 53.5
uk manufacturing pmi
(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)

Manufacturing data in the UK slid during the middle of the year into Q3. As we wind up the year, it seems like data has stabilized. In the last couple of months data Manufacturing PMI data has picked up. If the reading is indeed in-line with expectation and improves from October’s 53.5 reading, then the GBP should find some resilience against the EUR, and the EUR/GBP should be pressured towards its 2014-lows. However, if the reading falls below 53.5, we can see some more short-term weakness in the pound.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec.)
Forecast: 57.6
Previous: 58.7

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.