Key Fundamental Factors this Week (3/9-3/13)

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JOLTS Jobs openings (Jan)

Last week was a busy one, with the RBA, BoC, BoE, and ECB making their monetary policy statements. We ended the week with a US jobs report, which showed better-than-expected NFP employment change numbers and unemployment falling to 5.5%. However, wage growth remained subdued and the participation rate (62.8%) was hovering above its historic low. Let’s take a look at what fundamental factors are in store for us this week.

3/10 Tuesday

AUS NAB Business Confidence
Previous: 3

US JOLTS Jobs Openings (Jan.)
Forecast: 5.04M
Previous: 5.03M
JOLTS Jobs openings (Jan)
(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)
We are continuing to see job openings increase, which adds to the rhetoric of labor market recovery. Once again, with jobs numbers and unemployment rate improving the market will now start to focus on wage growth and the participation rate. Declining unemployment rate is meaningless without improvement in participation rate as well, and the FOMC has repeated expressed the need to see wage growth before raising interest rates.

BoE Governor Mark Carney will speak before the Lords of Economic Affairs Committee in London. The main topic will likely be on the foreign exchange scandal surrounding the BoE. Central bank members wielding their power and and taking advantage of their access and privilege unethically? Unfortunately, this doesn’t come as a shock to many.

3/11 Wednesday

UK Manufacturing Production m/m (Jan.)
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: 0.1%

NZ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference:
Official Cash Rate:
Forecast: 3.50%
Previous: 3.50%
RBNZ
(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold rates. With the Kiwi being resilient of late, Graem Wheeler is likely going to jawbone about it being overvalued, which should give it at least some short-term drag, especially against the USD. In terms of monetary policy, the press conference might reveal whether or not a rate cut is still on the table, and if it is, the NZD will have even more bearish pressure.

3/12 Thursday

AUS Employment Change (Feb.)
Forecast: 15.3K
Previous: -12.2K
aus employment change
(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)
Unemployment Rate (Feb.)
Forecast: 6.4%
Previous: 6.4%
The AUD has been weak as the RBA still has another rate cut on the table if the economy does not show some grit. Jobs data is key, and after a -12.2K reading for January, we better see a rebound. A reading below 10K could cause another dent in the Aussie.

US Retail Sales m/m (Feb.)
Forecast: 0.5%
Previous: -0.8%
retail sales feb US
(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)
Core Retail Sales m/m (Feb.)
Forecast: 0.6%
Previous: -0.9%
Retail Sales data for January and February have been negative despite improving jobs data and lower gasoline prices. It will indeed be a weak Q1 in terms of demand. But if the February print does show the decent rebound as expected, the USD might regain its stride (that is, if it has slowed down.) If the USD is already gaining, a headline reading above 1.0% might be needed for further boost.

3/13 Friday

CAN Employment Change (Feb.)
Forecast: 21.3K
Previous: 35.4K
can employment change feb.
Unemployment Rate (Feb.)
Forecast: 6.5%
Previous: 6.6%
The employment change data has been inconsistent, but looking at the trend throughout 2014, it is actually in the right direction, up. February’s reading is expected to be unimpressive relative to 2014’s readings, but it will at least put together 2 straight month’s of job increases, which has been rare in the past couple of years. When we can see 3 months of consecutive job growth, we can start looking for a rebound in the CAD. That is if we also see decent inflation data.

US PPI m/m (Feb.)
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: -0.8%
us ppi feb.
Core PPI m/m (Feb.)
Forecast: 0.1%
Previous: -0.1%
Oil Prices have finally stabilized, and we should see the PPI stabilize as well after 3 months of deflationary prints. Even the core reading, which does not include oil, was negative. If the PPI data does not meet expectations, the USD should be pressured especially if it has been extending the previous week’s gains.

US Preliminary UM Consumer Sentiment
Forecast: 95.6
Previous: 95.4

Previous Post by Author: NFP Data Surprises and Lifts the USD Across the Board

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.