Gold Breaks Down a Triangle; Low on the Year in Sight

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Gold Breaks Down a Triangle; Low on the Year in Sight

Gold price action has been tentative in April. After making a March low of 1142.67, price rose above 1200 to almost 1225 before retreating. The 4H chart shows the choppy price action throughout April, which appears to have been a triangle pattern.

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart 4/24
gold04242015h4
(click to enlarge)

Note that the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) have been moving sideways, and crisscrossing each other. This is indicative of an indecisive market. The triangle represents less and less conviction in both directions.

This week, after holding under 1210, the market was mainly bearish in the very short-term. Note the relative size of the bearish candles versus the bullish ones. They reflect the fact that bears have been in charge his week. As we are winding down the week, price held below 1200 and fell sharply below this triangle pattern, signaling bearish outlook in the short-term.

Now, if there is a pullback, and the market is indeed turning bearish, we should not see gold rebound above the 1190-1195 area. If resistance holds here and the 4H RSI holds under 60, then the bearish outlook should remain in play.

Where is this bearish outlook going? Let’s take a look at the daily chart:

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart 4/24
gold04242015day
(Click to enlarge)

Here are some observations from the daily chart:
1) The moving averages have been flat, which represents a sideways market. But we know the prevailing trend has been bearish, and the SMAs are also now back in bearish alignment (200- above the 100- above the 50-day SMAs).
2) Price is below all three SMAs.
3) The RSI held below 60 after tagging below 30 in March. This reflects the bearihs momentum in February through mid-March.

Finally, a key indication that the market is reviving the bearish outlook is the fact that the early-April rally failed to break above 1238 (it didn’t even test it). This shows that bulls are losing steam in the consolidation mode, and opens up the gate for a bearish attempt.

Because of the above mentioned technical developments, gold looks poised to fall towards the March low near 1143 as well as the low on the year just above 1130.

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.