Gold and Silver Awaiting the US NFP with Bearish Bias

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Gold and Silver Awaiting the US NFP with Bearish Bias

Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) priced in the US dollar, needless to say, depend significantly on the value of the USD overall. The market is waiting for tomorrow’s US NFP to help determine the direction of the USD at least in the short-term. Let’s take a look at the charts of these previous metals as they also await the key jobs data for direction.

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart 3/6
gold 4h chart 3/6
(click to enlarge)

Gold has been falling since late January after making a high on the year around 1307. After sliding to 1190, it started to consolidate in late February. However, if was not able to push above a previous support/resistance pivot area around 1220. The 4H chart shows that price turned back down to 1200, where it is hanging around for now.

With price below the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs, and with action showing resistance around 1210 now after resistance at 1220, the previous metal is poised to push lower. The market might want to make sure the US NFP is not overly disappointing. If it is slightly disappointing as the ADP report was, a significant upward revision to the January print could also provide USD-strength and drag gold prices down to 1190 and lower.

Below 1190, there is a short-term support at 1170. Below that gold will be pressured towards the 1130-1140 lows on the year.

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart 3/6
silver 4h chart 3/6
(click to enlarge)

Silver is in the same predicament in February as gold was in, sliding from January’s high around 18.50 down to about 16.10 before rebounding.

Then, we saw the rally retreat from 16.80 and price is now threatening to break the February low. In fact the 4H chart shows that price did already crack this low, but just like gold, we might need to wait for the NFP data before silver will continue the downtrend towards the 14.65-15.05 lows of 2014. (The 2015-low is around 15.50.

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.