Triangle Breakout: GBP/JPY has been trading in a triangle pattern since last week after falling to 177.15. It made a bullish swing to 181 from that low, and started to coil in a symmetric triangle seen in the 1H chart.
Bearish Signs: Looking at the 1H chart, we can see price push below the triangle support. GBP/JPY has also held below the 200-hour simple moving average throughout the triangle formation, which reflects maintenance of some bearish bias within this consolidation pattern. Now, with price back below the 100-, and 50-hour SMAs as well, GBP/JPY has revived the bearish outlook in the short-term.
Pullback Confirmation: During the 3/24 US morning session, we saw a pullback that respected the triangle apex area as resistance, thus confirming the bearish breakout and signaling pressure towards the 177.15 low, with risk of extending lower.
Market in Consolidation: The daily chart shows that GBP/JPY is in a consolidation mode in the medium-term, after making a 2014-high at 189.71. Price failed to revive the bullish outlook in February, and has been retreating in March.
Bearish Correction Scenario:
If price breaks below the 177.15 low and below the 177 handle, it would finally break below the 200-day SMA. Then, we should expect GBP/JPY to test the 175.50-176 lows on the year made in January.
A break below 175.50 would open up the 170 psychological handle. If this scenario materializes, GBP/JPY would have turned a bullish trend since 2012 into a sideways market. It would still have to break below a common support in 2014 (as in October) around 168 before opening a bearish outlook for the medium to long term.
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