GBP/JPY Awaiting Breakout from a Triangle Pattern

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In the 1H GBP/JPY chart, we can see price action coiling into a symmetric triangle. This indicates a lost of both direction and volatility. It should be noted that the prevailing trend in the medium-term is bearish since the beginning of March, but the longer term outlook since 2012 has been bullish. But let’s first focus on this week.

GBP/JPY 1H Chart 3/23
gbpjpy 1h chart 3/23
(click to enlarge)

The 1H chart shows that GBP/JPY does have a slight bearish bias, but barely. The moving average has tagged 70, which shows loss of the prevailing bearish momentum and possible initiation of bullish momentum. Price is trading above the 100-, and 50-hour SMAs. It is however still holding below the 200-hour SMA, which gives it the slight bearish bias.

Now, if price pushes above 179.50, GBP/JPY would likely have broken above the triangle and the cluster of hourly SMAs. This would indicate a reversal of the March downtrend.

However, as we will see in the 4H chart, the 181-182 area will involve some key resistance factors to challenge the bullish outlook.

GBP/JPY 4H Chart 3/23
gbpjpy 4h chart 3/23
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows that if the current triangle becomes a price bottom, bullish price action will meet resistance starting around 181, which was last week’s high and where the 100-period SMA resides. Then, the 182 level has the 200-period SMA and a falling speedline from the March high near 185. In fact the break above 182 would open up the 185 high.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart 3/23
gbpusd daily chart 3/23
(click to enlarge)

A break above 185 then would open up the 187 highs as well as the high on the year around 189.70. The technicals in the daily chart has a slight bullish bias with price holding above the 200-day SMA.

However, a break below 177 would erase this bullish bias, and open up not only the low on the year around 175.50, but also the 170 handle below. Looking back at the triangle in the 4H and 1H charts, a break below 178 could trigger this bearish outlook.

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