Forex Video Briefing (9/8) – USD/JPY, USD/CAD
The USD/JPY stalled just below 105.70 but found support at 104.75. The 4H chart shows a market that is clearly bullish based on the price action, moving averages, and the RSI. Since the consolidation on Friday was about 95 pips, a break above 105.70 can be projected another 95 pips, which brings a bullish continuation target of 106.65. We should note that around 106.50 is where the 200-month SMA resides, so we should expect some sellers in this 106.50-106.65 area. However, with the current bullish trend intact, there is still room to the upside, to the 109-110.69 area, which contains a support/resistance pivot area, and the psychologically sticky level of 110. Essentially, we should remain bullish, but expect some resistance first at 106.50-106.65 after a break above 105.70.
The USD/CAD pair has been choppy. After failing to break above 1.10, it fell, and hinted at a bearish outlook by forming a price top. However, price held mostly above 108.20, and has been reviving the bullish outlook. Note that price is now pushing above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. The RSI has pushed above 60, showing loss of the bearish momentum from the end of August bearish attempt. Also note the recent spikes down, which reflect weak bearish attempts. Put all this together and the USD/CAD looks like it is poised to break last week’s high around 1.0940, and open up the 1.10 handle. Since this bullish scenarios is in-line with the trend since the beginning of July, we can expect further upside risk above 1.10, toward the 1.1050 highs from April for example Note in the daily chart, that price is respect the cluster of moving averages as support after crossing over them. This creates a bullish sling-shot signal further building the case for a rally toward 1.1050.