Forex Video Briefing (9/23) – AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Gold
AUD/USD came out of the gate bearish this week. Then after a session of consolidation, September’s falling trendline came into play as we can see in the 4H chart. AUD/USD is now making a new low on the month. When we look at the weekly chart, we can see that price has already broken the March low as well as the 2013-low. Now, the next support could be the 0.8660, 2014-low.With the prevailing trend bearish since 2011, don’t be surprised if AUD/USD extends below the 0.8660 area, though we should expect some consolidation around the low on the year especially with the weekly RSI dipping into oversold territory.
NZD/USD started the week in consolidation, but the prevailing trend was too strong. September’s trendline and the 50-period SMA in the 4H chart acted as resistance, and price is now falling to a new low on the month. Based on price action, the moving averages, and the RSI reading, the 4H chart shows a very persistent downtrend. The weekly chart shows the pair breaking below the 200-week SMA and essentially cracking the 2014-low at 0.8051. Also note that price is tagging a rising trendline from 2010. Compared to the AUD/USD, NZD/USD has a stronger long-term bullish mode. With the RSI also dipping into oversold territory, NZD/USD might have a better chance to consolidate/rebound around the 2014-lows, even though it is poised to make a fresh low on the year. We can consider support at 0.80, reinforced by a rising trendline from 2011.
Gold price (XAU/USD) attempted a bullish correction after an extended bullish divergence with the RSI in the 4H chart. However we can see that price is still bearish staying below the moving averages. The RSI held below 60, which is a sign that the bearish momentum was maintained. When we look at the weekly chart, we can see that the current downtrend has just a bit more room to run until the 2013 and 2014 lows around 1180.20. The weekly RSI shows maintenance of the bearish momentum, and it is still above 30, so there is some room to the downside.