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Forex Video Briefing (9/17) – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Before FOMC
The EUR/USD is seeking a price bottom, but does not have the fuel so far to push higher. This actually shows weakness in the euro. In the near-term, it appears that the market is building bullish momentum in the 1H chart, with price above the moving averages and the RSI hold above 40 after tagging 70. If price can push above 1.30 after the FOMC risk, we are likely going to have further consolidation/bullish correction, with upside risk toward the 1.31-1.3110 resistance, then the 1.3220 support/resistance pivot seen in the daily chart. However, failure to clear 1.30, and a return below 1.29 should be a sign of bearish continuation with the 1.2860 low on the week in sight as well as the 1.28 handle. The weekly chart shows the key support factors in the 1.2760-1.28 area, so for now, we should limit our bearish outlook to these 2013-lows.
GBP/USD is in a bullish correction, showing some pound-strength, especially after today’s UK data, which showed better than expected numbers for average earnings, claimant count change, and unemployment rate. The 1H chart shows a rally building on top of a price bottom last week. In the daily chart we can see that as price approaches 1.64, it will also be approaching a falling trendline. It will be important to see if the FOMC reaction can help it break this trendline, in which case GBP/USD should be in a medium-term consolidation, with upside risk toward the 1.67 handle. Otherwise, if price falls back below today’s low of 1.6250, GBP/USD is likely in bearish continuation with the 1.6052 and then the 1.60 handle in sight. In the weekly chart we can see that the 1.60 level has the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% retracement as reinforcements for support, so any bearish outlook should be limited to 1.60 for now.
While the USD is consolidating, the Japanese yen continues to be weak across the board. The USD/JPY looks like it is done with consolidation, and is ready for bullish continutaion pending a break above 107.40, especially if the RSI is able to push above 60. In the short-term, we can project another 60 pips higher. 60 pips is the current consolidation width. That puts the pair at 108.00 handle after a breakout. In the monthly chart, we can see upside risk toward the 108.96-109 pivot area.
However, if USD/JPY fails to break above 107.40, or comes right back down after it and crashes below 107.10, we are likely in some consolidation/bearish correction mode first with the 106.80 and 106.60 levels in sight. With the Japanese yen in a bearish mode, we should probably limit any USD/JPY-bearish outlook to 106 and the Sept 9 support