Forex Video Briefing (9/11) – NZD/USD and NZD/JPY after the RBNZ
The kiwi was generally pressured after Wheelers comments about the exchange rate. The 4H chart shows that the market is indeed still bearish, but the reaction was not a strong one. The tentative price action along with the 4H RSI in oversold territory suggests the market might be due for some consolidation, or bullish correction in the short-term. There is a local support/resistance pivot at 0.8223. A break above this pivot will be needed to establish some consolidation/correction scenario, which would have upside risk in the short-term toward the 0.8266 pivot, and a falling trendline that originated from around the 2014-highs made in July. Until that trendline is broken, there is still strong downside risk toward the 0.8051 low on the year up to the 0.8084 support pivot from Nov. 2013.
The NZD/JPY has been in a bullish channel since August’s low of 85.73. Price has shifted from a prevailing bearish trend in July to a bullish one in August and so far in September. The reaction to the RBNZ statement held NZD/JPY below the 88.05 high on the week. It is pushing the pair toward the channel support. A break below 87.20 would be a key bearish signal, then if price can hold below 87.60 on a pullback, and fall below 87.00, we have a bearish outlook at least toward the 85.73 August low. If this scenario materializes, we can see that in the daily chart, it would be a flag pattern breakout. There will be even more downside risk toward the 84.00-84.50 area. This area also satisfies the ABC correction scenario where wave C is similar to wave A.