Forex Video Briefing (8/19) – USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF
The USD/JPY is signaling bullish continuation. After the reaction to the positive housing data, it broke above a falling trendline, It is opening up the 103 resistance area. When we look at the daily chart, we can see that a break above 103 should expose the 103.75-104 highs from March and April. It should be noted that on the daily chart, momentum is starting to look bullish as the RSI tagged 70 and has held above 40, even 50. Price is also starting to hold north of the 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages. So, we do have a bullish outlook toward 103, and possibly the 103.75-104 area.
I wanted to look at the USD/CAD because this pair has formed a double top but has had limited bearish correction since then. Price has held above a rising trendline support, maintaining a bullish trend since mid July. The RSI has also for the most part, held above 40, showing bullish momentum is maintained. If price can break above 1.0920, it will clear the 50-period SMA and a previous resistance pivot. If the RSI pops above 60, USD/CAD should signal a bullish continuation with upside risk first to the 1.0986 high, than the 1.1050 high from April.
The USD/CHF is also signaling bullish continuation after the US housing data. The 4H chart shows that August price action was initially consolidation, and even a slight bearish correction when price formed a triple top. However, price held above a couple of rising trendlines, from July and from May. Price held above the 200-period SMA in the 4H chart, and was already bouncing back up ahead of US data.After stalling at the central pivot area of the range around 0.9070, it is now moving up, poised to test the 0.91-0.9115 resistance area, with further upside risk toward the 2014-highs in the 0.9130-0.9156 area.