Forex Video Briefing (6/30) – EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP
The 1H EUR/USD chart shows the rally that came despite poor German retail sales data. Then it held at 1.3660 after the soft CPI estimate. After some sideways action, traders in the US session seem to remain strong on the EUR/USD, and the pair is poised to test the June high at 1.3676. This is the key level this week as traders await Thursday’s ECB monetary policy announcement and US Non-Farm payroll. A hold above 1.36 keeps June’s bullish outlook in play. A break below 1.3575 however revives May’s decline, and focuses on the 1.3503 May-low and the 1.3476 low on the year.
EUR/JPY stalled at last week’s consolidation high after the inflation data. If it falls below 138.35, it remains bearish in the 1H chart. If it can push above 138.50, we can be looking at a near-term, intra-session rally. However, we should note that the market is turning bearish in the daily chart. Last week’s hold below 139 and the 200-DAY SMA suggested bearish continuation, which has the 137.70 May low, and the 2014-low of 136.23 in sight.
The EUR/GBP had the strongest reaction to the soft inflation data. However the 1H chart shows that price is stabilizing above 0.80. A hold above 0.80 gives the EUR/GBP a bullish start to the week and extends a consolidation/correction pattern seen in the 4H chart. You can argue that the flag pattern in the 4H chart suggests pending bearish continuation. If last week’s high at 0.8033 holds, then this bearish continuation scenario is likely to materialize. A push above 0.8035 does not necessarily suggest bullish reversal. Remember the prevailing trend is very bearish , and the 0.8060-70 area could provide resistance, especially if price is also testing a falling trendline from March’s highs.