Forex Video Briefing (11/14) – AUD/USD

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[videojs mp4=”http://s3.amazonaws.com/fxcom-amazon-s3/2014/11/ThreateningBearishContinuation.mp4″]
Forex Video Briefing (11/14) – AUD/USD

The 4H AUD/USD chart shows the pair rallying from the 0.8540 low on the year to 0.8764, near last week’s highs. It retreated from there, holding below the 200-, and 100-period SMAs, and is now testing a short-term flag pattern. This dip was helped by a better than expected retail sales reading, which showed that retail sales grew 0.3% on the month in October, after a -0.3% reading in September. Forecasts called for a 0.2% print.

If price can clear below 0.8650, it should open up the bearish continuation outlook which would test the 0.86 handle then the 0.8540 low with risk of falling lower. As long as price remains below 0.87, this bearish scenario is in play. A break above 0.8720 however might signal further consolidation, or another leg of bullish correction towards the 0.8764 high, then the 0.88 handle.