The EUR/USD is showing the strongest 4H push we have seen since falling in July from 1.37 to 1.3367. The fundamental factors this week were not enough to keep the USD-train rolling. However, the prevailing bearish trend is still intact, and if price pushes toward 1.35, we might see some sellers. Note that the 1.35-1.3510 lows from June will also be reinforced by a falling trendline that connects the high on the year at 1.3993 with July’s high around 1.37. The next key resistance after that will be 1.3575-1.36. A break above 1.36 would be a strong sign that the market is in a medium-term consolidation, and we should expect the current low around 1.3367 to stick for a while.
The GBP/USD has been bearish since the high on the year at 1.7190. Today, GBP/USD accelerated downwards after softer UK Manufacturing PMI. This price action broke below the 100-day SMA, and below a couple of key rising trendlines formed in 2014. Traders seem to be holding Cable above 1.6810 after the NFP report, but the overall bearish trend still look strong. If there is a bullish correction/consolidation next week, watch for sellers at the falling trendline, and around the 1.6950-1.6975 area. A break above the falling trendline suggests a longer period of consolidation and suggests we should respect the 1.68-1.6810 area as support in the first half of August. Otherwise, if the current downtrend is intact, the next key support level will be around 1.67, the lows in May/June.
The NZD/USD has formed a double bottom after this week of US data. It suggests at least a short-term consolidation, with some upside risk toward the 0.8575-0.86 area, which is likely to be reinforced by a falling trendline seen in the 4H chart. A break above 0.86 would suggest that we have put in a low for the first half of August around 0.8460. It could also be a sign of bullish continuation, because the rising trendline seen in the daily chart (from Sept. 2013), is still intact. Also note that price is essentially holding above the 200-day SMA, which shows that the bullish bias is intact. However, if you see price rejected from going above 0.86, there is downside risk back toward the 0.8450, 200-day SMA, and the rising trendline from Sept .2013.