Daily Forex Market Review: Cautious Trading on Geopolitical Risk – July 21, 2014

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Daily Forex Market Review: Cautious Trading on Geopolitical Risk - July 21, 2014

The US dollar lazed around on Friday, despite the pickup in risk aversion and flight to safety in the forex market. Perhaps traders hesitated to take any large positions ahead of the weekend, knowing that geopoliticial risk is weighing on sentiment and that developments could lead to large price gaps.

It appears that forex market trading has also started quietly this week, as traders also digest the upcoming top-tier events in light of the conflict in Gaza and the MH17 airline disaster. Data from the US was weaker than expected on Friday, as the UoM consumer sentiment fell below expectations at 81.3. There are no reports due from the US today.

The euro was in consolidation against the dollar on Friday as there were no major reports released from the euro zone. The current account balance was short of expectations at a surplus of 19.5 billion EUR versus the estimated 24.3 billion EUR and the previous 21.6 billion EUR. German PPI and German Buba monthly report are up for release today and another round of weaker than expected data might lead to more losses for the euro.

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The pound retreated to its forex market counterparts on Friday, as bulls closed their long positions ahead of the weekend. There have been no reports released from the UK then but traders might be keen to position ahead of the BOE minutes release this week. Earlier today, the Rightmove HPI came in weaker than expected and showed a 0.8% decline in prices. No other reports are due from the UK today.

The franc resumed its slide to the dollar but its forex market losses were limited. There have been no reports released from Switzerland then and none are due today, leaving the franc at the mercy of risk sentiment.

The yen advanced to its counterparts on the heels of risk aversion, but gave up most of its gains before the forex market week came to a close as profit-taking was seen across the markets. BOJ meeting minutes released then indicated that policymakers are not looking to ease anytime soon, as they mentioned that the economy is recovering moderately and that the negative effects of the tax hike will soon fade. There are no reports due from Japan today as Japanese banks are on holiday.

The comdolls made a quick recovery before the end of the week when traders booked profits off their short positions. Canadian CPI figures came in line with expectations, as the core figure marked a 0.1% decline while the headline figure saw a 0.1% uptick. Wholesale sales was much better than expected with a 2.2% gain versus the estimated 0.7% increase while the previous month’s figure saw an upward revision. Data on New Zealand credit card spending is due today and no other reports are lined up from the comdoll economies.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.