EUR/USD Testing Last Week’s Broken Range for Support

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EUR/USD Testing Last Week's Broken Range for Support

The EUR/USD has been consolidating in November. After making a new low on the year near 1.2360, it rallied. Last week, it traded in a range roughly between 1.24 and 1.2505. At the end of the week, after a failed attempt to break below 1.24, EUR/USD sprung up and broke the range resistance. 

EUR/USD 1H Chart 11/17
eurusd 1h chart 11/17
(click to enlarge)

The 1H chart shows the market pushing to 1.2577 before retreating. As we begin the 11/17 US session, price has pulled back to the 1.25 area, testing the broken range resistance area as support.

While we might still have some near-term downside risk, we should note that the area above 1.2460 can provide support if the EUR/USD is to maintain a bullish correction mode and confirm basing price action. Here we also have the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages (SMAs). A bounce off these SMAs would be a sling-shot bullish signal as well. Finally, the 1H RSI is approaching 40 after it tagged 70. If it holds above 40 it shows bullish momentum in this intra-session time-frame.

If the market does hold the bullish bias and momentum, there will be upside risk first toward the 1.2577 high, then the 1.26 handle. 

EUR/USD 4H Chart 11/17
eurusd 4h chart 11/17
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows that the current rally is going against a prevailing downtrend. It has broken above the 100-, and 50-period SMAs, and the 4H RSI has broken above 60. In other words, EUR/SUD lost its bearish bias and momentum in this time-frame. 

However, 1.26 will likely be a critical resistance and we should expect sellers there. The 1.26-1.2635 area involves a support resistance pivot zone, the 200-period SMA, and a falling trendline coming down from mid-October’s high of 1.2887. Look for a bearish attempt to at least test the 1.25 area again, especially if both the 4H and 1H RSI’s are overbought (above 70), A break below 1.2450 (middle of last week’s broken range) then might revive the bearish outlook. for risk to 1.24, 1.2360, and possibly lower.

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.