Since making a low on the year at 1.0462, the EUR/USD has rallied to about 1.1040. Most of this rally was from around 1.06 before the FOMC statement to 1.1040 in the hours following the event risk. Since then, the pair has pulled back to 1.0625, found support, and has been drifting back to the 1.1040 high.
The 1H chart shows the pair testing the 1.1040 area again last week, failing to clear this resistance. At the end of the week, we saw a retreat to the 1.0800 handle.
Now, there was a bounce off of the 200-hour SMA and the 1.08 level, which suggested that bulls were still in control, or at least that bears in this market were tentative. However, we then saw the pair hold below 1.0950, which showed respect to a price top, as well as the 50- and 100-hour SMAs. This shows that bulls have lost control.
Although the market is not showing a bearish outlook just yet, there are signs of topping which suggests the market might indeed revive its prevailing downtrend.
1) The hold under the 100-, and 50-hour SMA is call a bearish signaling.
2) The fact that the 1H RSI tagged below 30 and is now holding below 60 shows that the bearish momentum from the second half of last week is still in play.
From a technical perspective the EUR/USD has bearish bias, but the outlook would be short-term based on the 1H chart. We might want to treat the 1.0650-1.07 level as possible support. However, given that EUR/USD has been in a persistent downtrend since mid-2014, our bearish outlook can be more aggressive, and the 1.0462 low could be in sight as well.
In the 4H chart, we can see that if price falls below 1.0750, EUR/USD would be under all of the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs again. Note that it was never able to break above the 200-period SMA, so although there was some loss of the prevailing bearish momentum and bias, the pair can easily revive the bearish mode, especially if the 4H RSI also falls below 40.
Below 1.0750, price would also have broken below the rising trendline coming up from the 1.0462 low.
Now, if the RSI tags 30, and then holds under 60 on a subsequent pullback, then we can be even more confidence that EUR/USD will test the 1.0462 low.
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