EURUSD Forex Signals: Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls Report

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EURUSD Forex Signals: Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls Report

EUR/USD forex signals show that the pair is trading inside a symmetrical triangle on its 4-hour time frame as traders can’t quite establish a clear direction on the pair. Price is testing the top of the triangle around the 1.3875 levels but stochastic is reflecting selling pressure.

A selloff from its current levels could take the pair back to the bottom of the triangle at the 1.3775 area. Consolidation around the current levels could be seen for the most part of the day as traders await the results of the non-farm payrolls report for April.

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EURUSD Forex Signals

Recall that the US dollar reacts to fundamentals during this release, as a strong jobs figure tends to support the currency while a weak reading leads to a selloff. The past report has printed a bleak result but there could be a stronger showing this time around. The consensus is at a 216K rise in employment, which could push the jobless rate down to 6.6% from 6.7%.EURUSD Forex Signals: Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls Report

In this case, EUR/USD might selloff to the bottom of the triangle and an even stronger figure could lead to a breakdown. Take note that the chart pattern is roughly 300 pips in height, which suggests that the resulting selloff could be of the same size.

The fundamental bias for the EUR/USD pair is still to the downside, given the divergence in monetary policy plans of the Fed and the European Central Bank. Keep in mind that the ECB will make its policy announcement next week and that officials are already considering negative deposit rates or further easing measures. Meanwhile, the FOMC statement earlier this week turned out to be relatively upbeat as the Fed decided to push through with its taper and give optimistic comments on the US economic recovery.

If the NFP turns out to be a downside surprise though, EUR/USD forex signals might indicate a strong upside break from the triangle resistance and rally until the previous highs near the 1.4000 major psychological level.

To contact the reporter of the story: Marco Roemer at marco@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.