EURUSD Currency Forecast

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Currency forecast, June 26th
Currency forecast, June 26th

So far a quiet session in the currency market, though I would expect that the market will try to go for the stops which are above 1,3100 in the EURUSD and again below 99,90 in the USDJPY.

My general outlook is still to buy especially the USDJPY on dips, as I feel the Bank of Japan and the government in Japan is still not happy with the current level the USDJPY is at. I still see the currency in the next few months up to 105,00 at least, if not maybe 110,00 (especially when talks about a rate hike in the USA will start).

If that move comes from a lower EURUSD or a higher EURJPY I can’t say. That is why I would not touch the EURJPY for now. EURUSD is a sell for me around 1,3110-1,3120 with a short term target of 1,2950-1,3000.

EURCHF is the same for me as USDJPY and also a buy opportunity. I don’t expect a one shot big move to 1,3000 but overall we will touch that level again (maybe already this year) and the Swiss national bank made it clear that the EURCHF will never trade below 1,2000 as that would destroy the economy in Switzerland. I would say a buy on dip and I would start buying around 1,2350 and then again around 1,2300.

Those are the currency pairs which I would trade for now. If you like, I would also recommend to play EURHUF at the moment, as we are getting close to the 300,00 level. EURHUF is a sell opportunity around 300,00 – I would start selling at 299,50 and then leverage it and sell again at 300,50-301,00 should we see. I would keep the position then until we see 286,00-288,00. You also earn from the higher interest rate they have in Hungary – so I really love that trade.

On Friday the next Non-farm payrolls are out where I would expect a number more or less as expected or maybe slightly better. You must not forget that they had big storms in their country which destroyed a lot and people could not work, so even if the number is more or less as expected, it should give the USD a boost (especially USDJPY). Current trades, positions and levels:

EURUSD Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Sell (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
1.3110-1.3120 1.2950-1.2990 1.3200 flat

USDJPY Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Buy (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
99.90 102.00-102.50 99.00 Long@ 99,90 B @ 99,90

EURCHF Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Buy (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
1.2300-1.2350 1.2500 1.2250 flat

USDCHF Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Buy (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
0.9425-0.9450 0.9650-0.9700 0.9350 flat