EUR/USD Currency Forecast

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Currency forecast, June 25th
Currency forecast, June 25th

Well, the ECB event was a bit of surprise, as market participants thought there could be the chance of a rate cut, but instead Draghi said more or less that for the next time they are happy with the current rate level. This statement gave the EURUSD a boost and stocks a bad day.

USDJPY was the currency pair which got most involved in that move, down below 97,00.

Though I would see the last big figure move in the USDJPY as too much and only stops driven.

Also, when I looked at the other currency pairs, it looked like it was a USD move and not a EUR move (USDCHF, USDCAD, USDJPY, GBPUSD). Overall it could be a wash out of the USD-long positions which were in the market.

Our next event to watch now is the nonfarm payrolls number today, where I would still expect a positive number or at least like expected (everything around 160k would be already positive for the USD and the stock market). That is why I would favor to be long on the USDJPY, long on the EURJPY for today.

I still love the EURHUF trade to sell around 299,00-301,00 and wait until we see 286,00-288,00 again, where you earn every day until it happens from the higher interest rate in Hungary.

So let’s wait until the numbers are out and see how the market will go into the weekend.

Current trades, positions and levels:

EURUSD Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Sell (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
flat flat

USDJPY Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Buy (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
Buy here 100,00 94,90 3 Long B @ 96,10

EURCHF Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Buy (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
flat

USDCHF Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Buy (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
flat

EURJPY Current last trade P/L (mtd) P/L (ytd)
Buy (Entry lvl) Target Stop position
Buy here 130,00+ 126,00 3 long B @127,50