EURNZD has been trending higher on its 4-hour time frame, testing support at the rising trend line and the 100 SMA. A break below this area could signal that the uptrend is already over and that a reversal is set to take place.
A bounce, on the other hand, could lead to a move up to the previous highs or even higher. The 100 SMA is still moving above the longer-term 200 SMA, confirming that the ongoing uptrend will stay intact.
However, stochastic is pointing down, suggesting that a downside break is possible. RSI is in the oversold region and turning higher, which suggests that euro bulls might take control of price movements in the near term.
EURNZD Fundamental Factors
Any updates on the Greek debt crisis could have a material impact on euro price action, as traders are still waiting to find out if the country will miss its debt repayment to the IMF this week. If they do, it could set the stage for more euro weakness, as traders price in increased odds of a default and euro zone exit.
The Greek parliament is set to have a referendum on the bailout by July 5 but this might do very little to shore up demand for the shared currency, whose existence might be put in question if a Grexit takes place. Capital controls have already been imposed in Greece in order to ensure that banks don’t run out of cash, but this scenario is bound to take place anyway if the government isn’t able to avert a full-blown crisis.
Meanwhile, the Kiwi is also being weighed down by rate cut prospects for the RBNZ. Data from New Zealand has been consistently weak, most notably in the dairy exports industry. This could keep the Kiwi weak against the euro, allowing the current EURNZD uptrend to stay intact.
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