EURCHF is pulling back from its strong upside break past the symmetrical triangle resistance on the 4-hour chart and may be due for a retest of the 1.0500 major psychological support. This lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the broken triangle resistance.
The 100 SMA crossed up from the 200 SMA, confirming that the uptrend is likely to stay intact and that the breakout has found momentum. Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions and is moving higher, suggesting that buying pressure could return sooner or later. However, RSI is still on the move down, which means that there may be enough selling pressure left for a larger correction.
A bounce off the 61.8% Fib or any of the retracement levels could lead to a move up to the recent highs near the 1.0700 major psychological mark. However, a break below the 1.0500 handle could mean that a longer-term selloff is setting in.
EURCHF Forex Forecast
Event risks from the Greek debt issue have faded, as the government is taking steps to implement austerity and repay its existing obligations. Economic data from the euro zone has shown a few improvements, although the recent batch of PMI readings from Germany and France have fallen short.
Germany is set to print its preliminary CPI and its unemployment change report today and strong data could mean more gains for the euro. Also lined up is Spain’s preliminary GDP reading and flash CPI.
As for the franc, the KOF economic barometer could provide a bit of volatility, as the reading is slated to climb from 89.7 to 90.3, reflecting significant improvements. Stronger than expected data could allow the EURCHF correction to carry on while weak results could lead to an earlier bounce.
Euro zone flash CPI estimates are up for release tomorrow and increases could mean more gains for the shared currency. Meanwhile, traders are still careful to pile on long franc positions due to the threat of SNB intervention.