EUR/AUD has been consolidating in May as we can see in the 4H chart below. After making a high at 1.4355, it has been chopping it sideways, maybe slightly downwards, making a low on the month at 1.3908 around mid-month.
The 4H Chart shows that at the end of May EUR/AUD popped up above a falling trendline and even cracked the previous high on the month. However as we begin the June month, price appears to be in a short-term consolidation just under 1.44 for the most part (there was also a spike to 1.4445) and above 1.42. At the moment, price is above he cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) and the 4H RSI is still above 40, so we still have a bullish bias and momentum from the end-of-May bullish breakout.
The daily chart shows a market that has been bearish since the December 2014 high of 1.5332. In march, after EUR/AUD came down to about 1.37 and even though it did make another low in April at 1.3673, the price structure clear shows a shift.
The bullish breakout in the 4H Chart is also a bullish breakout in the daily chart. Now, a push above 1.4445 would complete the breakout and push above the April high. Note that price would have returned above the moving averages and the daily RSI would have cleared 60. These would all be signs of a bullish reversal.
If price can hold above 1.42 this week and push above 1.4445 either this week or the upcoming one, EUR/AUD would be signaling a bullish reversal with upside risk at least towards the 1.48-1.49 February highs.
A break below 1.42 however would put pressure back to the 1.39-1.40 lows in May.
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