ETHXBT has formed lower highs and higher lows, moving inside a symmetrical triangle pattern on its 4-hour chart. Price is currently testing the resistance and may be due for a move towards support at 0.01500.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In addition, the 200 SMA appears to be holding as dynamic resistance, keeping gains in check. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to show that an upward crossover may be due. If that happens, buyers could return and push for an upside breakout from the resistance at 0.01600.
The chart pattern spans 0.01700 to 0.01300 so the resulting breakout could last by the same height. RSI is on its way down to show that sellers are regaining control of price action while stochastic is moving south to reflect bearish pressure as well. Better watch out for reversal candlesticks if you’re trading the bounce off the support and resistance or look out for long candles to confirm breakouts.
The latest news in the cryptocurrency industry is that the Chinese government may be looking into restricting bitcoin transactions. This comes after a strong influx of funds from Chinese investors went into BTC for the past few months in their effort to hedge against yuan devaluation. However, these moves are starting to be worrisome for authorities so they are looking to limit the amount of bitcoin moving in and an out of the domestic economy.
This spurred a sharp drop for bitcoin price across the board yesterday since it might put an end to the stream of buyers from the mainland, thereby limiting price gains. Against ethereum, bitcoin lost some ground but quickly recovered. For one, the Chinese government might not be able to implement these bitcoin controls well, given the nature of BTC transactions. However, they could still opt to ban bitcoin trading in China completely so there’s a chance that the cryptocurrency could lose a huge market.
Even so, ethereum appears to be inferior to bitcoin in terms of network security so the latter could be poised for more gains. Last month, security breaches in ethereum forced developers to implement a hard fork but this didn’t seem to be enough to weather other attacks.
Looking at the longer-term time frames shows that the ETHXBT downtrend is still very much intact. A break above the triangle resistance on the 1-hour chart could merely inspire a large correction visible on the daily and weekly time frames, with sellers waiting at key levels such as 0.01800 and 0.02000.
The 100 SMA is also below the longer-term 200 SMA on the 4-hour and daily chart, signaling that the downtrend is more likely to carry on rather than reverse. Stochastic and RSI are heading north on these longer-term time frames, though, so a correction is in order as sellers are looking exhausted from the continuous dive.
For now, the consolidation could stay in place until more updates from China are seen, as a total ban in bitcoin could force the currency to retreat across the board but the lack of regulation or weak implementation could allow the selloff to resume.