Elliott Wave Morning Overview: USD, EUR and GBP

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Written by Elliott Wave Analysis Services |

The USD is mostly higher across the board ahead of highly awaited ECB press conference and Bernanke’s speech later today at 19:30GMT. So there are plenty of reasons why market could move strongly today in either direction. We in fact could see stronger USD, which would not be surprise because I can count five waves down on USD Index so it might be time for a corrective retracement.
USD Index 4h

USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis 10213
USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis 10213

With potential USD Index rally we must consider bearish scenarios for EURUSD. However, I am still tracking two different wave counts. The first one shows a corrective wave two pull-back which must find a low around 1.3500. If not, and if pair will slip lower, then we will have to go with the bearish view, with ending diagonal in place in wave five.

EURUSD #1

EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis 10213
EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis 10213

EURUSD #2

EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis 2 10213
EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis 2 10213

As I am looking across the board, the only pair which has a solid bullish structure against the USD is GBPUSD, which could now be in wave iv pull-back, testing 38.2% retracement area. Invalidation level is at 1.6095, but for any longs 1.6110 stop should be enough. If price will go below that level then we will know that GBPUSD is also moving in larger corrective reversal.

GBPUSD 1h

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis 10213
GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis 10213

 

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Gregor Horvat first made his name in Slovenia and has become world famous in the forex market since 2003. He is both a trader and a technical analyst who offers trading strategies on the Fibonacci and Elliot Wave principle. His main focus is on currency pairs, U.S. stock market, gold and oil. Gregor Horvat found the forex service offered on http://www.ew-forecast.com/. This website provides traders technical analysis, while putting emphasis on behavioral patterns. These are derived from the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP). Traders who are interested in the entry and exit positions, and he probability of the former and latter follow the EWP on a regular basis.