ECB Maintains Rate and QE Path; EUR/USD Should be Bearish

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ECB Maintains Rate and QE Path; EUR/USD Should be Bearish

Today’s main event risk in the forex market was the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy statement and press conference. There were some distractions as protesters interrupted the press conference, even attacking ECB president Mario Draghi – he was unhurt.

ECB President Attacked by Activists at ECB Meeting

Back to the business at hand, the ECB maintained the benchmark interest rate at the historic low of 0.05%, while Draghi assured that the bank is looking to fully implement QE, touting its early success.

In the press conference he said:

“Looking ahead, our focus will be on the full implementation of our monetary policy measures. Through these measures we will contribute to a further improvement in the economic outlook, a reduction in economic slack and a recovery in money and credit growth.”

The ECB also noted some improvement in its economic and inflation outlook. So, QE is going to go as planned while there is a turnaround from the last few months of economic slowdown. What does this mean for the EUR/USD? First let’s take a look at the reaction.

EUR/USD 1H Chart 4/15
eurusd0415h1
(click to enlarge)

The EUR/USD at first rallied after the ECB press conference, but if price does not push above 1.0707, we should anticipate a bearish attempt to test the 1.0520 low with risk of extending towards the low on the year at 1.0462 as seen in the 4H chart.

EUR/USD 4H Chart 4/15
eurusd04152015h4
(click to enlarge)

In the 4H chart, we can see that the EUR/USD has already broken down the consolidation structure since mid-March. Now price is holding under the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs which are sloping down. The RSI has also tagged below 30 and so far has held under, which shows a revival of bearish momentum.

Today’s ECB statement should continue to pressure the euro in the short-term into the medium-term against the USD. However, because the FOMC is delaying its rate hike plan, we should expect some choppy bearish action as EUR/USD continues to fall towards the 1.00, parity level.

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.