Daily FX Trading Update: Weak US Retail Sales Drag USD Lower – Oct 16, 2014

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Daily FX Trading Update: Weak US Retail Sales Drag USD Lower - Oct 16, 2014

The US dollar got sold off heavily in recent FX trading sessions, as the US retail sales report came in weaker than expected. The headline reading showed a 0.3% decline versus the projected 0.1% dip while the core version of the report showed a 0.2% drop instead of the estimated 0.2% gain. The Empire State manufacturing index also came in weaker than expected since it slipped from 27.5 to 6.2, much lower than the projected 20.3 figure. For today, initial jobless claims and industrial production data might dictate dollar movements.

The euro managed to take advantage of dollar weakness since there were no major reports released from the euro zone yesterday. ECB Governor Draghi didn’t drop any surprises during his testimonies, keeping further losses in check for the time being. Euro zone final CPI readings are up for release today and these might show unchanged readings, although downgrades could push the euro back in selloff mode.

FX Trading Fundamentals

The pound had a volatile FX trading day as the jobs report printed mixed results. The claimant count change reading was much weaker than expected, as it showed a mere 18.6K pickup in hiring versus the projected 34.2K rise. The jobless rate dropped from 6.2% to 6.0%, as the number of unemployed fell below 2 million for the first time in six years. There are no reports up for release from the UK today, as traders might continue to weigh in on how the latest jobs report might affect BOE policy bias.

The franc resumed its FX trading rallies to the dollar and there were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday. Swiss SECO economic forecasts are up for release today and a downbeat outlook might force the franc to return its recent gains. Apart from that, the franc might also be extra sensitive to risk sentiment.

The yen continued to advance against most of its major FX trading counterparts, as risk aversion supported the lower-yielding currency. Industrial production was weaker than expected at -1.9% versus -1.5%, confirming BOJ policymakers’ fears that production hasn’t recovered from the sales tax hike yet. There are no reports due from Japan today, leaving yen pairs at the mercy of risk sentiment.

The comdolls were able to bounce back to the dollar in recent FX trading, as the global dairy trade price index from New Zealand marked a 1.4% rebound. Apart from that, Australia also saw some improvements in Westpac consumer sentiment and new motor vehicle sales. Canadian manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases data are due today.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.