Daily FX Trading Update: USD Reigns Supreme with Risk-Off Moves

The US dollar regained ground on Friday, thanks to US data coming in line with expectations. The UoM consumer sentiment index fell from 94.7 to 94.3, slightly higher than the estimated 94.1 figure, while the UoM inflation expectations reading was unchanged at 2.4%. There are no major reports due from the US economy today, leaving traders to price in expectations for the retail sales figures lined up tomorrow and the FOMC statement midweek.
The euro had a mixed performance as it weakened to the dollar and yen but advanced to the pound. Data from the euro zone, namely French industrial production and German WPI, came in mostly stronger than expected on Friday but traders are hesitating to buy the shared currency ahead of the EU referendum later this month. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
The pound was still one of the weakest performing currencies as traders continued to act on jitters ahead of the Brexit vote. Polls are still showing shifting leads in favor of either the “stay” or “leave” camps so it’s too close to call. UK construction output and inflation expectations both printed upbeat results on Friday and the CB leading index is due today.
The franc was weaker against the dollar but it continued to rake in gains against its European rivals. There were no reports out of Switzerland on Friday and none are due today, keeping the franc sensitive to market sentiment.
The yen was off to a strong start this week as risk aversion kicked into high gear. Japan’s tertiary industry activity showed a 1.4% gain on Friday, twice as much as the 0.7% forecast. Over the weekend, Japan’s BSI manufacturing index printed a weaker than expected -11.1 reading and the revised industrial production report is due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up ground on Friday, as traders likely booked profits ahead of the weekend. Jobs data from Canada was stronger than expected as hiring rose 13.8K versus the projected 3.1K increase. Over the weekend, Chinese data printed downbeat results with industrial production down from 6.1% to 6.0% and fixed asset investment slumping from 10.5% to 9.6%. Retail sales came close to consensus at 10.0%, down from the earlier 10.1% reading.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.