Daily FX Trading Update: US Data Disappoints, RBA Decision Looming – Feb 2, 2016

Daily FX Trading Update: US Data Disappoints, RBA Decision Looming - Feb 2, 2016
The US dollar was weighed down by weak data and dovish Fed rhetoric. US personal spending was flat in December even while personal income rose by 0.3%. The core PCE price index also showed a flat reading instead of the estimated 0.1% increase. Later on, the ISM manufacturing PMI showed no change at 48.2 instead of rising to the projected 48.6 figure, with the employment component indicating a decline. FOMC member Fischer noted that inflation could stay low for somewhat longer and his fellow FOMC member George is set to give a testimony today.
The euro managed to take advantage of dollar weakness but lagged behind the pound and the commodity currencies. Revised PMI readings from euro zone’s top economies came in mostly in line with expectations. German and Spanish unemployment change numbers are up for release today and strong readings could give the euro another boost.
The pound staged a very strong rally after seeing stronger than expected manufacturing PMI data. The report showed a rise from 52.1 to 52.9 instead of the projected drop to 51.8, reflecting stronger industry expansion. Construction PMI is due today and a dip from 57.8 to 57.6 is eyed.
The franc managed to recoup some of its recent losses to its peers as there were no major reports out of the euro zone and the Swiss economy. Their manufacturing PMI fell from 52.1 to 50.0 to show a slower pace of industry growth. Swiss retail sales is due today and a 1.3% decline is expected.
The yen struggled to regain some ground in recent sessions, as traders are still weighing the impact of negative deposit rates. There are no major reports due from the Japanese economy today, keeping risk sentiment in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to advance in recent trading sessions, as risk appetite lifted the higher-yielding currencies. The RBA statement is scheduled today and no major changes are expected, although the central bank might acknowledge the risks from China and caution that the Aussie is still overvalued. New Zealand’s quarterly jobs report is due next and a 0.8% increase is expected but the unemployment rate could rise from 6.0% to 6.1%. The GDT auction is also due in the late US session.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.