Daily FX Trading Update: UK Data Disappoints, USD Weaker

The US dollar was off to a good start for the day but wound up erasing its wins when traders booked their post-NFP positions. Preliminary non-farm productivity fell 0.5% versus the projected 0.5% increase while unit labor costs rose 2.0% versus the estimated 1.8% gain. US JOLTS job openings data is due today but might not have much of an impact since the official NFP report was already printed.
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but was still no match to comdoll strength. Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected since Germany reported a smaller trade surplus of 21.7 billion EUR versus the projected 23.2 billion EUR figure and the previous 22.1 billion EUR surplus. Only the French industrial production report is due today and a 0.3% rebound is eyed.
The pound suffered a sharp selloff when the UK goods trade balance missed expectations at a deficit of 12.4 billion GBP for June. To top it off, the previous reading was downgraded to show a wider deficit. BOE official McCafferty mentioned in an op-ed piece that the central bank could lower rates further if economic activity slows. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.
The franc regained ground to the dollar but was mostly weaker against its other rivals. The Swiss jobless rate was unchanged at 3.3% as expected but traders seemed to be paying more attention to overall market sentiment. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.
The yen regained ground as it took advantage of dollar weakness but was mostly steady against the comdolls. Japanese core machinery orders jumped 8.3% versus the estimated 3.4% increase while PPI showed a slightly smaller than expected 3.9% fall versus the estimated 4.0% decline. Japanese tertiary industry activity data is due next and a 0.3% rebound is expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the biggest beneficiaries of dollar weakness and risk appetite yesterday. The Loonie got a slight boost from the oil rally that took place after the EIA upgraded its 2016 demand forecast. In Australia, the Westpac consumer sentiment index showed a 2.0% increase, recovering from the earlier 3.0% slide. Home loans rose only 1.2% versus the estimated 2.4% gain, suggesting that the housing sector is starting to cool. The RBNZ decision is coming up in the late US session and a 0.25% cut is eyed.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.