Daily FX Trading Update: RBNZ Hints at Further Easing, ECB Next

The lack of top-tier data from the US economy left the Greenback reacting to country-specific data. The US dollar advanced to the commodity currencies but was mostly weaker against the euro, pound, and franc as sentiment seemed to improve in that region. Initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed index are due today.
The euro struggled to hold its ground as some traders started pricing in dovish remarks for today’s ECB statement. ECB head Draghi might decide to sit on his hands since the BOE refrained from cutting rates in last week’s policy statement, deciding to keep their options open for further easing down the line. German PPI beat expectations while the euro zone consumer sentiment index was down from -7 to -8.
The pound got a lot of support from better than expected UK jobs data. Claimants rose by 0.4K in June while the jobless rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9%. The average earnings index rose from 2.0% to 2.3% as expected, indicating wage growth and upside pressure on consumer inflation. UK retail sales data is due today and a 0.4% drop is eyed.
The franc advanced to the dollar but weakened to its other European rivals. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today, which suggests that the franc could keep moving as a counter currency as well.
The yen resumed its slide when rumors of a 20 trillion JPY economic stimulus package from the government hit the newswires. No details have been provided just yet but traders seem to be pricing in additional easing from the BOJ in their statement next week as well. There are no reports up for release from Japan today so risk sentiment could also push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly weaker as the RBNZ revealed in its economic update that additional easing could be needed in order to bring inflation back to its target level. Policymakers also mentioned that the exchange rate needs to be lower. Visitor arrivals were down 1.0% in June and credit card spending data is due next.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.