Daily FX Trading Update: Lower Liquidity on Fourth of July Holiday

The US dollar was mostly weaker than expected last Friday despite stronger than expected ISM manufacturing PMI data. The reading jumped from 51.3 to 53.2 instead of holding steady, indicating a much faster pace of industry growth. However, construction spending and ISM manufacturing prices came in much weaker than expected. US banks are closed for the Fourth of July holiday today.
The euro was stuck in consolidation on Friday despite mostly stronger than expected medium-tier data. Manufacturing PMI readings from its top economies either beat expectations or were revised higher while the Italian unemployment rate also came in better than expected. The Spanish unemployment change report and euro zone Sentix investor confidence data re due todya.
The pound was still weaker against most of its forex peers even though the UK manufacturing PMI beat expectations. The index rose from 50.4 to 52.1 to show a faster pace of industry growth but traders seemed to shrug this off as they continued pricing in expectations for additional BOE easing. UK construction PMI is due today and a drop from 51.2 to 50.6 is expected.
The franc was unable to establish a clear trading direction even while the Swiss retail sales report came in slightly better than expected. Consumer spending was down 1.6% year-over-year compared to the estimated 1.7% decline and the previous 2.2% slump. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.
The yen barely budged on Friday as most of the Japanese economic reports came in line with consensus. The Tankan manufacturing index was unchanged at 6 instead of dropping to the projected reading of 4 while the non-manufacturing component dropped from 22 to 19 as expected. Consumer confidence improved from 40.9 to 41.8. There are no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls held on to their gains as commodity prices stayed supported. Data from China came in mostly in line with consensus, except for the Caixin manufacturing PMI which dropped from 49.2 to 48.6. Earlier today Australia reported a 5.2% drop in building approvals. No other major reports are due from the comdoll economies today.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.