Daily FX Trading Update: Greek Debt Ultimatum Today – Feb 20, 2015

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Daily FX Trading Update: Greek Debt Ultimatum Today - Feb 20, 2015

The US dollar regained a bit of ground in yesterday’s FX trading sessions, as risk aversion extended its stay in the markets. Data from the US economy was mixed, as initial jobless claims came in better than expected while the Philly Fed index showed a decline from 6.3 to 5.2 instead of improving to the estimated 8.8 reading. Only the US flash manufacturing PMI is up for release today and the figure is slated to fall from 53.9 to 53.7.

The euro continued to consolidate against most of its major FX trading counterparts, with a slight bias to the downside as rumors that Germany rejected Greece’s latest proposal hit the airwaves. The ECB meeting minutes barely contained any surprises, as it simply showed that most officials favored an increase in stimulus. Euro zone PMIs are up for release and a few improvements are expected, but any updates on the Greek debt talks might have a bigger role in euro price action.

FX Trading News

The pound returned some of its recent FX trading wins, after traders booked profits on their long trades after the UK jobs report release earlier in the week. CBI industrial orders expectations data came in stronger than expected, as the index improved from 4 to 10, higher than the projected reading at 7. UK retail sales and public sector net borrowing data are up for release today and it will be interesting to see if the downturn in inflation is actually translating to stronger spending as Carney suggested.

The franc edged lower to its FX trading counterparts despite stronger than expected trade balance figures from Switzerland. SNB head Thomas Jordan’s remarks on stepping up their intervention efforts in case the euro tumbles on a Greek exit seem to have weighed on the Swiss currency lately. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

The yen had a mixed FX trading performance, as it advanced to the euro and the dollar but weakened against the commodity currencies. Japan’s trade balance came in stronger than expected and showed a smaller shortfall, with exports marking a record 17% gain. Earlier today, Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected, as it fell from 52.2 to 51.5 instead of improving to 52.6.

The Aussie and the Kiwi posted a few gains in recent FX trading while the Loonie slid lower to the US dollar. Canada is set to print its retail sales data later on and possibly show a 0.3% decline in core consumer spending and a 0.7% drop in headline retail sales. No other reports are lined up from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.