Daily FX Trading Update: Get Ready for the FOMC – Dec. 16, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: Get Ready for the FOMC - Dec. 16, 2015
The US dollar was able to bounce back against its peers when data came in mostly in line with expectations. The headline CPI stayed flat in November while the core version of the report showed a 0.2% uptick. The Empire State manufacturing index rose from -10.7 to -4.6, higher than the projected climb to -5.7 reading. For today, all eyes and ears are on the FOMC statement, as a rate hike might be accompanied by cautious remarks.
The euro was hit by a fresh round of selling pressure later in the day, even though the shared currency drew a bit of support from upbeat data. The German ZEW index rose from 10.4 to 16.1, higher than the estimated 15.2 reading, but the region’s figure fell short of expectations. Flash PMI readings from Germany and France are set to drive euro price action today.
The pound bounced upon seeing its CPI readings come in line with expectations but eventually gave up ground to its counterparts later on. The headline CPI showed a 0.1% uptick while the core CPI rose from 1.1% to 1.2%. The UK jobs report is up for release today and a 0.9K increase in claimants is eyed, enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 5.3%, but the average earnings index is set to drop from 3.0% to 2.5%.
The franc also gave up ground in recent trading sessions even though the Swiss PPI beat expectations and showed a 0.4% gain. The Swiss ZEW expectations report is up for release today and any improvements from the previous 0.0 reading could keep the currency supported.
The yen took its cue from risk aversion since there were no reports out of Japan. Fortunately for the lower-yielding currency, risk-off flows were seen during the later sessions as traders probably liquidated their holdings ahead of the FOMC statement. The Japanese flash manufacturing PMI is still due before then and a rise from the previous 52.8 figure could mean more gains for the yen.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls caved to the dollar but managed to advance against the European currencies. New Zealand’s dairy auction showed a 1.9% rise in prices, slower than the previous 3.6% gain but still an increase nonetheless. Canada reported a worse than expected 1.1% slump in manufacturing sales but the Loonie was able to get a boost from BOC Governor Poloz’s reassuring speech. New Zealand’s Q3 GDP is up for release next.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.