Daily FX Trading Update: GBP Short Squeeze, Stimulus Boost for JPY

The US dollar lost a lot of ground to its forex peers in the New York trading session as risk appetite seemed to improve. Data from the US economy came in mixed, with personal income falling short of consensus and personal spending posting a slightly stronger figure. The core PCE price index came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick. The ADP non-farm employment change report is due today and a 171K gain is eyed. Also lined up today is the ISM non-manufacturing PMI which might show a fall from 56.5 to 56.0.
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but was no match to yen strength. Data from the region came in stronger than expected as Spain reported a larger drop in joblessness while the PPI showed a 0.7% gain in prices versus the estimated 0.4% uptick. Services PMI readings and euro zone retail sales data are due today.
The pound enjoyed a strong rally across the board on a suspected short squeeze ahead of the BOE decision on Thursday. Data from the UK was slightly better than expected since the construction PMI came in at 45.9 versus the projected 44.4 figure, showing a smaller than expected contraction. UK services PMI is due today and no revision from the initial 47.4 estimate is eyed.
The franc gave up a lot of ground when the Swiss economy printed downbeat reports. Retail sales sank 3.9% on a year-over-year basis versus the estimated 2.0% drop while the SVME PMI tumbled from 51.6 to 50.1 instead of improving to the projected 51.9 figure. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
The yen continued to hold on to its gains and go for more after the Japanese government announced its 28T JPY economic stimulus plan. There were no other reports out from the Japanese economy then and none are due today so risk sentiment could push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls regained ground yesterday despite weaker commodity prices and the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25%. In New Zealand, the GDT auction yielded a 6.6% gain in dairy prices. Crude oil inventories data is due today and a draw of 1.6 million barrels is eyed, likely to spur a quick bounce in oil and the Loonie.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.