Daily FX Trading Update: GBP in Focus with UK CPI, NZ GDT Auction Next

The US dollar failed to establish a clear direction in recent trading sessions, as the lack of top-tier data left it sensitive to country-specific events. The Empire State manufacturing index fell from 9.6 to -9.0 instead of just dipping to 7.2. US CPI figures are due today and a pickup in from earlier reports is eyed. Also lined up are building permits and housing starts data, along with industrial production and capacity utilization figures.
The euro was mostly weaker against its peers even though there were no major reports out of the region as banks were closed for the holiday. Today has the region’s trade balance due and a wider surplus of 23.1 billion EUR is expected.
The pound managed to advance against most of its counterparts as some polls revealed a slight lead by anti-Brexit voters. The focus could shift back to economic data today as the UK CPI is due. No change from the earlier 0.5% headline figure and 1.5% core reading is expected.
The franc gave up ground to its peers even though Swiss banks were closed for the holiday. The Swiss PPI is due today and a 0.1% uptick in producer prices is expected. Weaker than expected results, however, could mean more losses for the currency.
The yen resumed its slide against some of its forex counterparts but remained stuck in consolidation to the dollar. Preliminary machine tool orders sank by 26.4% on a year-over-year basis in Japan. The preliminary GDP reading is due in the next Asian trading session and a 1.0% growth figure is eyed.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls strengthened in recent sessions, buoyed partly by gains in crude oil. Supply disruptions in Nigeria and Venezuela convinced Goldman Sachs to assess that the market is stabilizing, predicting that prices could reach $50/barrel by the second quarter of the year. New Zealand has its GDT auction scheduled along with the PPI releases in the late US session, with downbeat data likely to push the Kiwi back down.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.