Daily FX Trading Update: Fonterra Keeps Milk Forecasts Unchanged – Feb 26, 2015

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Daily FX Trading Update: Fonterra Keeps Milk Forecasts Unchanged - Feb 26, 2015

The US dollar struggled to hold its ground in recent FX trading, as data came in stronger than expected. New home sales picked up by 481K versus the projected 471K gain. In her semi-annual testimony in front of Congress, Fed Chairperson Yellen reiterated her cautious comments in saying that the Fed isn’t in a rush to hike interest rates just yet. US CPI figures are up for release today, with the headline reading slated to show a 0.6% decline in price levels and the core reading expected to print a 0.1% uptick. US durable goods orders data is also due. Weaker than expected data could lead traders to push rate hike expectations back further, which might lead to more dollar weakness.

The euro was still in a weak spot to its FX trading counterparts even though there were no major reports released from the region. In his speech yesterday, ECB Governor Draghi mentioned that he is seeing a few positive signs in the economy. He refrained from focusing on Greece’s finances and instead chose to highlight the role of capital markets in boosting growth. German unemployment change and GfK consumer climate data are up for release today, both of which are expected to show better figures.

FX Trading News

The pound extended its gains in recent FX trading sessions, as BOE Governor Carney reiterated his optimistic comments on the economy. He said that the UK could reach its 2% inflation target in two years and that real wages are starting to pick up, which should be good for spending and overall growth. The UK’s second GDP estimate is up for release today and no changes are expected for the 0.5% growth figure.

The franc edged lower to its FX trading counterparts once more, as euro weakness increased the odds of another SNB intervention. Data from Switzerland has also been weaker than expected, as the UBS consumption indicator fell from 1.42 to 1.24. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today.

The yen had a mixed FX trading performance, as it consolidated to most of its major counterparts but gave up ground to the pound. There have been no reports released from Japan yesterday and none are due today, leaving traders to price in their expectations for Japan’s data set due tomorrow. For now, risk sentiment might continue to drive yen movements.

The comdolls returned some of their recent FX trading wins when Fonterra refrained from upgrading its milk forecasts in their latest board meeting. Australia also reported a worse than expected 2.2% decline in private capital expenditure for Q4 2014, indicating weaker business conditions. Later today, Canadian CPI figures are up for release and its headline figure is eyeing a 0.4% decline.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.